“Steady Demand Chasing a Shrinking Pool of Trucks.”
Freight is heading into an expensive fourth quarter in every mode. The TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index released on October 13 projects Q4 2026 truckload rates at their highest level since Q1 2022, LTL rates more than 80% above their January 2018 baseline for the first time, and record highs for both ground and express parcel. AFS Logistics, which manages more than $11 billion in transportation spend, also projects that 2026 will close as the most expensive parcel shipping year on record. DC Velocity’s headline on the report told shippers to buckle up for an expensive Q4.
Supply and fuel, more than demand, are pushing those rates up. AFS describes truckload rates climbing while a demand-side catalyst “remains conspicuously absent,” and it notes that GDP growth of 2.2% in Q2 2026 came mostly from services and investment rather than goods that move by truck. AFS also notes that national LTL carriers reported mid-single-digit tonnage declines this year. AFS Chief Executive Andy Dyer named two forces behind the increase: fuel, which he expects “to drive elevated transportation costs for the foreseeable future,” and capacity, where truckload rates reflect “steady demand chasing a shrinking pool of trucks.”
The parts of the Q4 bill a shipper or broker controls are the surcharges it accepts, how it spreads volume across carriers, how easy its freight is for the remaining carriers to take, and how early its own customers hear about the increase.
What the TD Cowen/AFS Index Projects for Q4
The index is built from billions of dollars in annual transportation spend and uses actual net charges, including accessorial such as fuel surcharges, measured against each mode’s 2018 rates. Its Q4 figures are projections for the rest of the quarter.
Truckload: The Highest Rates Since Early 2022
The truckload rate per mile index stood 7.6% above its January 2018 baseline in Q4 2025 and climbed to 19.7% above it in Q3 2026. AFS projects 23.4% above the baseline in Q4 2026, up 14.7% from a year earlier and the highest level since Q1 2022.
AFS attributes the increase to the supply side. Regulatory enforcement is taking drivers off the road and closing training locations, which AFS reads as a sign that capacity is unlikely to rebound at its historical replacement rate. The release also points to high diesel costs leaving some carriers vulnerable, citing 16 trucking companies that filed for bankruptcy in a 30-day period, which we covered when the filings came in.
LTL: Above 80% for the First Time on Record
AFS projects the LTL rate per pound index at 82.5% above its January 2018 baseline in Q4 2026, up 8.8% year over year. Q4 would be the third straight quarter at an all-time high and the first quarter on record above 80%.
LTL demand has stayed soft. Mich Fabriga, AFS’s vice president of LTL pricing, credits the strength in pricing to spiking fuel prices and to carriers prioritizing only profitable loads that fit their networks. In LTL, the fuel surcharge tracks diesel closely: AFS shows it rising to 79% above its September 2025 level when diesel hit an all-time high of $6.53 a gallon this September.
Parcel: Records in Ground and Express
The ground parcel rate per package index is projected at a record 43.3% above its January 2018 baseline in Q4 2026, up 5.8% from a year earlier and 3.2% from Q3. The express parcel index is projected at 20.3% above its baseline, a record for the fifth straight quarter and up 13.8% year over year.
Peak volume adds its own charges. AFS points to demand surcharges that penalize volume above baselines set earlier in the year, and to the FedEx general rate increase that moves 2,533 ZIP codes from the extended delivery area surcharge to the remote tier. For packages headed to those ZIP codes, the fee rises to $17.75 when the increase takes effect January 4, 2027, roughly doubling the charge for residential deliveries and more than tripling it for commercial ones.
Why Parcel Fuel Surcharges Stay High After Diesel Falls
AFS tracked the parcel fuel surcharge from 7.75% in Q1 2021, when diesel averaged $2.91 a gallon, to 30% in September 2026, when diesel peaked at $6.53. Of that 22.25-point increase, AFS attributes 72% to carriers adjusting their surcharge tables rather than to the price of fuel. At $2.91 diesel, today’s tables would still produce a 23.75% surcharge, roughly three times the Q1 2021 level.
Mingshu Bates, AFS’s chief analytics officer and president of parcel, described the parcel fuel surcharge as “a revenue lever for carriers in addition to a pass-through mechanism,” and said that “even if crude oil normalizes and fuel prices recede, the effective fuel surcharge will not show a material decrease.”
For Shippers: Control the Charges You Can Still Negotiate
The charges stacked on top of the rate, and how a shipper’s freight looks to the carriers deciding what to haul, are where a shipper can still manage its Q4 cost.
Check Each Fuel Surcharge Against the Table in Your Agreement
Compare the fuel surcharge on every invoice to the diesel price for that week and the table in your carrier agreement, and negotiate the table itself at your next renewal along with the base rate. In parcel, AFS’s finding that most of the surcharge increase since 2021 came from table changes means the table is where the cost sits.
Cost is the invoice data you already receive, plus time at renewal.
Spread Peak Volume Before Demand Surcharges Apply
Compare your Q4 volume plan by carrier to the baselines in each carrier agreement, and move volume that would exceed a baseline to another carrier before the surcharge applies. Bates said shippers are diversifying across carriers “to shield themselves from capacity risk and surcharge impact,” and that the holiday peak tends to speed the shift of share toward alternative carriers.
Cost is a volume forecast by carrier, built from shipping history you already have.
Find Your Remote-Tier ZIP Codes Before January 4
Ask your FedEx representative or your parcel auditor which destinations in your shipping history move from the extended tier to the remote tier under the new general rate increase. For the affected ZIP codes, either price the higher fee into your delivery charges or route those packages to another carrier.
Cost is one comparison of your destination list against the reclassified ZIP codes.
Make Your Truckload and LTL Freight Easy to Accept
Tender truckload freight with firm appointments and turn trucks quickly at your docks, and send LTL shipments with accurate weights, dimensions, and class. With “a shrinking pool of trucks” in truckload and LTL carriers prioritizing profitable loads that fit their networks, freight that is easy to plan and quick to load gives carriers a reason to accept it. We laid out how dock time costs carriers capacity in our article on why trucking’s winners will run more with less.
Cost is the appointment and dock data you already keep, and the time it takes to measure the shipment correctly.
For Brokers: Bring the Index Into Every Rate Conversation
Brokers sit between a shipper’s budget and a carrier’s cost, and fuel is raising both this quarter. Brokerage is also consolidating, as we covered when C.H. Robinson agreed to buy RXO, which leaves shippers with fewer large options and more reason to value a broker who explains the market plainly.
Quote Linehaul and Fuel Separately for Q4
Show the fuel surcharge as its own line on every Q4 quote, tied to a published diesel price. Fuel is one of the two forces AFS names behind this quarter’s increase, and a shipper who can see the fuel line separately can see which part of the rate will follow diesel back down.
Cost is one more line on each quote.
Tell Shippers About the Increase Before the First Q4 Invoice
Send each key shipper account the Q4 projections from the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index along with your plan for protecting its capacity through peak season. A shipper who sees the truckload index projected 14.7% above last year before the first invoice arrives is in a position to plan for the increase.
Cost is one account review per key shipper.
For Carriers: Higher Rates Pay Off When Fuel and Miles Are Managed
The index points to rising truckload rates through the end of the year, and the same release shows why higher rates have not protected every carrier: AFS ties the recent bankruptcies to high diesel costs. A carrier keeps more of a higher rate when its trucks buy fuel at planned stops on the route and run fewer empty miles, which is the case we made in our article on how the carriers that outperform buy fuel when diesel hits a record. Contract freight priced with fuel tied to a published diesel price passes the next spike to the rate instead of to the margin.
Where We Fit
EKA Omni-TMS runs carriers, brokers, and shippers on one record, and the AI agents already live handle the work that gets expensive in a quarter like this one.
EKA Documents AI pulls in carrier invoices, bills of lading, and proofs of delivery, validates the data, and matches each document to its load, so an invoice amount that does not match the rate goes to your team for review. EKA DockTime AI timestamps arrival and departure against each facility’s free time and builds every detention charge with the proof attached, which gives shippers a charge they can check and brokers one record to bill the shipper and pay the carrier from. EKA On-Time AI predicts every pickup and delivery and alerts your team and your customer when a window is at risk.
For carriers and private fleets, EKA Route AI plans each route around the driver’s available hours, the stops, and the appointments, and EKA EconFuel AI tells each driver when, where, and how many gallons to buy on that route. EKA Control Center AI brings the exceptions from every agent into one view, with the workflow to resolve each one attached.
Fuel and capacity will set the price of freight this quarter, and AFS expects fuel to keep costs elevated for the foreseeable future. How much of that price a shipper or broker actually pays depends on the surcharges it checks and on how easy its freight is for the carriers still running to accept.
Rate figures in this article are projections from the TD Cowen/AFS Freight Index and can change as the quarter closes. This article is provided for general informational purposes and does not constitute legal, financial, or investment advice.
