Spot load activity jumped 21% in a single week this May. All-in spot rates are 43% above last year. Diesel hit $5.60, up 50% since early Q1. The truck transportation PPI posted its largest monthly increase on record.
Pressure on the freight market is multifaceted. Rising compliance costs are forcing smaller carriers out of operation. Geopolitical instability in the Strait of Hormuz, OPEC production cuts, and refinery disruptions have contributed to persistent fuel price volatility, eroding margins before these costs can be incorporated into pricing. Route guide depth has exceeded 1.3 for the first time in years, and tender rejections are increasing.
Operators of trucking companies, brokerages, or freight operations are already aware of the impending challenges. The next 12 months will critically assess every aspect of business operations.
The regulatory shift
The Supreme Court handed down Montgomery v. Caribe Transport on May 14. Nine to zero. The F4A preemption shield that brokers relied on for decades is gone. (We covered the full ruling in SCOTUS Reset.)
Brokers can now be sued in every state where they arrange transportation. Carrier selection, safety records, vetting processes: all discoverable, all presentable to a jury. Over 94% of federally authorized carriers operate without an FMCSA safety rating. The qualification system was never built for this scrutiny. (We wrote about this infrastructure trust crisis earlier this year.)
For carriers, the bar is rising. Brokers under legal pressure will tighten vetting. Clean safety records and real-time compliance data will win more loads. Carriers who can’t prove their house is in order will get passed over.
For shippers, the exposure is indirect but real. A shipper that picks a broker who picks an unsafe carrier is part of the chain that a plaintiff’s attorney will pull apart.
The Standard of Care will soon become the primary determinant of survival in the brokerage sector and Shippers contracting directly with carriers. Brokers and shippers capable of demonstrating real-time diligence with auditable records will remain operational. Those unable to meet these standards face unaccounted legal and financial exposure.
Furthermore, the technology solutions currently being adopted by most companies are insufficient to address these emerging challenges.
Gartner forecasts that over 40% of agentic AI projects will be canceled by the end of 2027. As previously discussed, this has significant implications for the freight industry. In summary, most vendors marketing their solutions as “AI-powered” lack the domain expertise required to automate the most complex 40% of workflows that are critical to operational success. These systems typically fail when confronted with edge cases such as hazardous materials routing, detention rules, driver compensation structures, and accessorial charges.
What real infrastructure looks like
When asked about the source of his genius, Einstein attributed it to one factor: concentration. Effective AI infrastructure enables freight operators to reclaim this focus. By automating the routine 80% of tasks, personnel can dedicate their attention to the remaining 20% that demands judgment and relationship management. EKA
At EKA, we have 4 AI agents in production. Route AI that provides the highest quality of route optimization and ETA prediction, Documents AI processes BOLs and rate cons. On-Time AI predicts delivery risk before it becomes a customer call and prevents customer penalty for late pickup and/or delivery. EKA DockTime AI automates Detention tracking, customer billing and driver pay workflows and catches margin erosion that goes uncounted until the quarter closes.
By mid-July, 3 more. A Fuel Optimizer for real visibility into the cost variable eating margins right now. A Load-Asset Match Optimizer that pre-builds dispatch assignments overnight. And a Load-Order-Processing AI handles inbound load and rate requests submitted via PDFs and spreadsheets and automatically completes load orders, so reps start with decisions, not data entry.
Seven proprietary agents by July 15. One platform for carriers, brokers, and shippers. One partner team that picks up the phone.
Build for the next 6 to 12 months. And the 6-to-12 after that.
Current elevated rates are temporary. As rates increase, the subsequent decline is often more pronounced. While there may be a temptation to adopt short-term technological solutions to navigate this cycle, such an approach is misguided as it fails to build sustainable competitive superiority.
For organizations seeking long-term sustainable competitive advantage, AI provides support across all market conditions, whether the market is tight, loose, experiencing regulatory changes, fuel price spikes, or rate collapses. The benefits of robust infrastructure accumulate over time, independent of market direction.
Features solve this quarter’s problem. Infrastructure solves every quarter’s problem. A Fuel Optimizer doesn’t stop being useful when diesel drops. A Standard of Care agent doesn’t become useless if Congress rewrites liability rules. A Load-Assets Match Optimizer doesn’t lose its usefulness when the market loosens.
Once operations reach a stage where AI manages routine tasks and personnel focus on complex decision-making, reverting to previous methods becomes unlikely. The competitive advantage over other firms increases with each quarter.
Operators who invest in robust infrastructure during challenging market conditions consistently emerge stronger in subsequent cycles.
Build the sustainable and competitive foundation. Any market. Any cycle.